Simple statements are to be prized more highly than less simple ones because they tell us more; because their empirical content is greater; and because they are better testable. – Karl Popper I view charts as a representation of market behavior, the only mode of market experience which can be objectively observed. Future behavior…
This chart comes to you from Serge Farra and was posted on the excellent Slope of Hope Blog. It compares the NASDAQ ($QQQ) from 1990-2000 to gold ($GLD) and breaks the respective charts into stealth, awareness and mania phases. It depicts gold presently as being in a huge bear trap and projects 2012 as…
Clouds so swift The rains fallin’ in Gonna see a movie called Gunga Din Pick up your money Pull up your tent McGuinn. You ain’t a-goin’ nowhere The Bob Dylan songbook might be the perfect hurricane soundtrack… not just for the obvious like A Hard Rain’s A- Gonna Fall or Hurricane … The biblical…
I am hearing hurricane trades everywhere and I do not like them here so please make it stop. I remember the days when this was really a trade but now everyone knows about them and writes about them. There are few stones left unturned. So please do not short the insurers and buy building…
I did a spot on CNBC earlier today with Herb, Brian and Mandy and we discussed the recent selling in gold ($GLD) from technical, global macro and psychological perspectives. It was a lot of fun… You can watch the segment here:
This video below filmed by @newsagg is a wonderful analysis of Fibonacci ratios drawn on a 20 year chart of the SP500 ($SPX, $SPY). The confluence of the 61.8% line drawn from the early 90s bottom to the 2000 top and the 50% line drawn from the 2000 top to the 2008 bottom is…
As of this weekend, I am no longer long $GLD which was by far my largest position for a long time. I held this and traded around it for almost 4 years and have been watching the action extremely closely for a long time. The following are some notes that were good for me to…
Remember the days Greenspan would trumpet productivity improvements brought on by the internet as a key factor in maintaining benign inflation during economic expansion? It was a great time. But these days, productivity gains brought on by the net as well as other technological advances only serve to exacerbate our nation’s inability to improve…
After throwing water on the reliability claims that magazine covers predict major market inflections, I figured I would provide some signs to keep an eye out for that might signal a $GLD top. 10 Signs That Will Tell You Gold Has Topped 10. The Total Market Cap of the TSX Venture Exchange Surpasses that…
The wise man learns from the mistakes of others, the average man learns from his own mistakes and the fool never learns. – Levin’s Mom I think Levin’s mom was misquoting Bismark but I like her version better. Before we wrap it up for the week, here are a few observations about the current…